UFC ESPN 1 & Bellator 215/216
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Matt Mitrione FREE Breakdown:
Sergei Kharitonov comes into this one riding high with all the bookies after defeating Roy Nelson, but at age 38 his skills will probably not be advancing. Mitrione has the exceptional technique, durability and power standing which should see him with a sensible benefit. Kharitonov will be looking to get the fight down but it will be difficult given Mitrione’s exceptional athleticism. Expect a tentative start from both guys before Mitrione starts accumulating strikes for a TKO stoppage.
Bet = Mitrione at 1.95 (-105) odds. Risk 3 Units to acquire 2.85 Units.Francis Ngannou Breakdown:
Cain is coming to this struggle after a substantial injury layoff. Actually he has had just one success because Ngannou entered the UFC, having fought 9 times himself. With so many question marks over his condition the fight seems to be lined overly broad. Ngannou clearly has enormous stopping power and will be quite dangerous on the feet . If Cain has lost a step or comes in appearing slow he’s in trouble. Historically his style brings a lot of pressure to opponents but he is open to shooting shots himself, especially when gassed. Both men have paths to success here, Ngannou can keep the fight standing and find an early KO. Cain will want to avoid the early storm and seem to wear the bigger man out with takedowns and cage pressure. We like the underdog in what seems to be a 50/50 fight going in. On the other hand, the winner of the struggle is very likely to seem dominant.
Bet = Ngannou in 2.65 (+165) odds. Risk 2 Units to win 3.3 Units.
James Vick Breakdown:
Vick’s inventory is at an all time low after his recent KO but his run to the top was impressive. Inside this matchup he’ll function as superior technical boxer with the duration and speed benefit. Felder has a tendency to mirror his competitor but he will need to turn this one into a brawl to find victory. It is possible he joins with a kill shot, but all other avenues to victory have been in Vick’s favour. Felder requires a close range fight to utilise his very best weapons but Vick has revealed he can stick into a gameplan and keep it in range. We enjoy the lineup on Vick to cruise to success with a clinical decision.
Bet = Vick at 1.91 (-110) chances. Risk 3 Units to win 2.73 Units.
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